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Every device must end up on one certificate. Whichever you keep, the devices on the other one have to move. Before choosing, count the devices on each certificate: see Diagnose devices on another Apple Push certificate.

By option

Check access to the original Apple Account

This is the first criterion. The original certificate can only be renewed with the Apple Account that created it. If nobody can sign in with that account anymore, keeping the new certificate is the only option.

Weigh the devices to move

If you still have access to the original Apple Account, compare what each option moves. Moving a device costs more or less depending on its type, from the heaviest to the lightest: Choose the option that moves the fewest heavy devices. For example, if the original certificate still holds most of your zero-touch iPhones, returning to it avoids erasing them, even if it means moving more Macs.
When you return to the original certificate, an alternative to erasing zero-touch iPhones and iPads exists in Apple Business. It is not the recommended route. See Unassign and reassign devices in Apple Business.

Next steps

Renew the original

If you return to the original certificate, install it first.

Move devices

If you keep the new certificate, purge the cache and move the devices.